Super Tuesday Preview, 1/31/08
Man, I’m glad I waited a couple of days to do this. Or maybe I’m not. I can’t recall an election when so many things were coalescing on any one point in time:
View ArticleObama is a Mac
You've probably seen some version of this before... ...Hillary as the outdated, clunky and corporate PC, and Obama as the modern, sleek, and independent Macintosh. It's a meme that might or might not...
View ArticleObama's Commanding Lead in Newspaper Endorsements
I know, I know: the last thing we need is another diary on the subject of endorsements. But since my literal and figurative buzz from the Super Bowl is too much for me to do anything useful, I figured...
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Final Super Tuesday Projection, 2/5/08
This is simply going to be a thumbnail version of what I did last week. No time for all those fancy charts and graphs, but I'd feel remiss if I didn't give it my best shot.
View ArticleUPDATED x10: Obama CLAIMS DELEGATE WIN, wins Missouri, leads 13 states to 8
Looks like Missouri could be Obama's big symbolic victory after all. MSNBC and CNN report: Obama 387,064 Hillary 383,853 97% reporting I'm going to look at what the outstanding counties are but last I...
View ArticleDoes the Clinton campaign really have money problems?
Yes -- in all probability. But, that doesn't mean that the events of the past 24 hours haven't been orchestrated in some respect. Let me explain how I see this. Here's what we know about the...
View ArticleWhat's an Obama State? With February predictions.
So, rather than trying to do things subjectively as I did last time around, I'm going to take a slightly different tact this time around. We've had 26 states participate in DNC-sanctioned contests so...
View ArticleSenate States: Advantage Obama
There has been an increasing about of back-and-forth about the meaning of victories in various primary and caucus states. Do blue states matter more than red states? Do a couple of big states matter...
View ArticleHillary Clinton's Two-Front War
The basic dilemma the Clinton campaign faces is that it is now in effect fighting a two-front war. On one front, they now trail substantially in elected delegates. Chris Bowers puts the count at...
View ArticleA Brief History of Superdelegates
To understand the origin of superdelegates, you have to understand one thing: George McGovern and the 1972 election. But let's first step back and frame things a little bit. The superdelegate system...
View ArticleObama is getting screwed by the delegate math
OK, so the title is deliberately a little bit inflammatory. But there's a little bit of a meme out there that because, for example, Obama won more delegates in Nevada while losing the popular vote,...
View ArticleThe RNC's devastating five-point attack plan on Barack Obama
Jeff Resner at Politico.com has the scoop (via Ben Smith). The RNC has a potentially devastating 5-point attack plan on Barack Obama, which speaks to the risk of nominating a candidate who is not...
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NYT Story Uniting Conservatives around McCain
My friends, I don't know what media you're consuming with your morning coffee, but if you're looking at anything even vaguely on the conservative side of the ledger, you'll find that the New York Times...
View ArticleHillary! The Movie!
Cut to scene of Hillary Clinton (Meryl Streep) debating furiously with advisers Mandy Grunwald (Parker Posey) and Mark Penn (Oliver Platt) before the Big State Debate. Penn/Platt, urging a "nuclear"...
View ArticleGeneral Election Projections, Beta Version
Hi all, This will be the first of what I hope will become a semi-regular installment of electoral projections for the general election. For the time being, I am including matchups of John McCain...
View ArticleJust 24% of Florida Dems want primary results to stand
Sorry in advance for the relatively substance-less diary, but I came across something interesting in my daily scan for general election polls. It is a poll from the Mason-Dixon polling agency asking...
View ArticleDEVELOPING: Clinton threatening lawsuit over TX caucuses?
This is going to be a cut-and-paste job. McClatchy Newspapers' Jay Root is reporting in the Kansas City Star that the Clinton campaign may have threatened to pursue legal action against the Texas...
View ArticlePollster Report Card
So, I've been a fair amount of work on how to weight polls from different pollsters and from different periods of time. It beats what I consider to the the depressing tenor of the Democratic campaign...
View ArticleDon't get even, get MAD
It occurs to me that, over the course of the past several weeks, we have been engaged in asymmetrical warfare in the Democratic Primary. Obama has the stronger position by most of the conventional...
View ArticleGeneral Election Projections, Survey USA Rules Edition
I do have a couple of leftover diary ideas about the primaries -- hint: I think the Clintons are bluffing if they say they don't want revotes in Florida and Michigan -- but in the meantime, there's no...
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